The Economic and International Trade Forecast, which featured the insights of economists from the CSUF College of Business and Economics and a trade outlook presented by the on-campus chapter of the Small Business Development Center, was held at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library & Museum on April 29. The event was attended by local policymakers, business leaders, academics and economics students.
Mira Farka, professor of economics and co-director of the Woods Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting, called the military action in Iran that is roiling supply chains perhaps America’s “boldest, riskiest and most consequential move since World War II.” The oil shock of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has diminished prior disruptions such as those wrought by the 1970s Arab embargoes or the 1991 Persian Gulf War.
Still, assuming a baseline scenario of conflict resolution by mid-summer 2026, the Titan economists foresee a more transient impact that will avoid a full-blown recession.
“Should the conflict end soon, the dent to growth and the impending surge in inflation will likely prove a blip — a temporary shock rather than a lasting scar, and in time, little more than a footnote in history,” explained Farka. “For now, markets appear to be pricing precisely this outcome.”
Read the full outlook in CSUF Business News.