Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris’ choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as a running mate has the nation’s pollsters and voters asking how her choice might shift the election.
Can a vice presidential candidate win over a state or a demographic? How do they shape public opinion about a presidential candidate? Cal State Fullerton faculty members with expertise in presidential campaign history can comment on how voters might respond to the vice presidential candidates as well as the regional and national impacts of a presidential election.
Rob Robinson, associate professor of political science, whose research areas include American elections and the U.S. presidency, said studies on whether a vice presidential nominee helps carry their home state differs.
“Some have found no difference,” Robinson said. “Others have found a small effect: on average about 1.7%.”
Matt Jarvis, associate professor of political science who studies elections, campaigns and public opinion, says vice president picks in the modern era should be made with one mission in mind: Do no harm.
“For a long time now, we haven’t seen much evidence that they matter much,” Jarvis said. “The few vice president picks who have mattered in recent years have only done so negatively.”
Jarvis can discuss what he calls “cautionary tales” like 1972 vice presidential nominee Thomas Eagleton and 2008 vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.
“If you predict voter choice in an election using standard measures like partisanship, ideology, simple demographics and add in opinions of the two presidential and two vice presidential candidates, Palin is the only VP candidate who matters according to data dating back to 1952,” Jarvis said. “Opinions of 2008 presidential candidate John McCain didn’t affect voter choice; opinions of Palin did. That’s the only election in history like that.”