The Commercial Real Estate Forum presented by Cal State Fullerton’s Center for Real Estate expanded in 2025, with hundreds of students, faculty and real estate professionals attending a comprehensive forecast and outlook, networking events, and award ceremony on Feb. 19. A panel discussion featuring College of Business and Economics economist and Woods Center Director Anil Puri, Rexford Industrial CIO Patrick Schlenhuber, Samuel Properties Director of Development Jay Tanjuan, and Ashwill Properties Broker Gary Martinez explored the transformation of this important sector in light of hybrid work schedules, trade wars, political changes and more.
The Opaque Outlook for the Economy Impacts Real Estate’s Future
“To be honest, no one is sure what will happen. The picture is as clear as mud as they say. It’s like a blizzard with so much happening that is dramatic and consequential,” said Puri, speaking of geopolitical changes, tariffs and the changes in the federal government. “There are two important deficits: one is international trade deficits. The other is fiscal deficits. Right now, trade deficits are getting the attention.”
Puri noted that the U.S. has had a trade imbalance for decades, but the Trump administration is in need of revenue for tax cuts that will be extended beyond this year. $4.5 trillion in expenditures and $1.5 trillion in revenue creates a lack of clear sources for revenue.
“Tariffs are really a tax collected by people who import, but the ultimate burden is on the buyer and seller. We don’t know where it will land,” said Puri.
Looking at history, Puri pointed to the 6.5% tariff increase in the 1930s, which coincided with the Great Depression. Therefore, Puri predicts a 5% tariff increase, which would erase much of the deficit.
“The second part of the story is inflation,” said Puri. “And the last piece of the puzzle is the state of the economy, such as GDP and employment. One would think that if there is a reduced labor force available due to reduced immigration and deportation, that would increase the wage rate and lead to inflation. Tariffs would also increase inflation. There is a positive side — some believe artificial intelligence will be our savior. But it is an open question two what extent this will come together and whether we will fall into the real danger of stagflation — persistent inflation and slow growth.”
Read the full outlook in CSUF Business News.